UN Report: Earth’s Land Becoming Permanently Drier, Affecting Billions by 2100
Introduction
A new report by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) warns that 77.6% of Earth’s land became drier from 1990 to 2020, a dramatic shift primarily caused by human-induced climate change. The findings, released at COP16 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, highlight the dire implications for ecosystems, agriculture, and over 2.3 billion people living in expanding drylands. If greenhouse gas emissions remain unchecked, up to 5 billion people could live in drylands by 2100.Extent of Global Aridification
The UN report identifies a significant transformation of humid areas into drylands:

40.6% of Earth’s land is now classified as drylands, up from 37.5% three decades ago.
An area of 4.3 million km² (a third larger than India) shifted to drylands.
Some regions, including the Midwestern US, Mediterranean, Southern Africa, Brazil, and Southern Australia, face high risks under severe climate scenarios.
Key Affected Areas

Europe: Nearly 95.9% of Europe’s land shows a drying trend, jeopardizing agriculture.
Western US and Brazil: Rising water scarcity and frequent wildfires threaten lives and economies.
Asia and Central Africa: Biodiversity hotspots are transitioning into arid landscapes, causing desertification and species loss.
In contrast, only 22.4% of global land saw wetter conditions, primarily in central US, Angola’s Atlantic coast, and parts of Southeast Asia.

Human Impacts and Risks
Drylands now support 2.3 billion people, more than 25% of the world’s population, a figure expected to double by 2100 under worst-case climate scenarios. The consequences include:

Forced Migration: Water scarcity and agricultural failure displace families, intensifying socio-political tensions.
Economic Decline: African countries recorded a 12% GDP loss (1990–2015) due to rising aridity.
Food Insecurity: Aridity is the leading driver of agricultural degradation, affecting 40% of arable land globally.
Health Crises: Diminished water resources and food shortages exacerbate malnutrition, child stunting, and mortality.
Wildfires and Dust Storms: Dry biomass fuels intense wildfires, while airborne dust heightens respiratory illnesses and deaths, particularly in arid regions.
Future Projections
By 2100, up to 20% of Earth’s land could face abrupt ecosystem transformations—forests turning into grasslands, leading to habitat loss and extinctions. Under a high-emissions scenario:

Global maize yields could drop by 50% in Kenya.
The Mediterranean may see an additional 40 days of high fire risk annually.
Water availability could decline by 75% in the Middle East and North Africa, worsening existing challenges.
Scientific Breakthrough: Measuring Aridity
For decades, conflicting data hindered efforts to document global aridity. The new report, supported by advanced climate models and standardized methodologies, conclusively links rising aridity to greenhouse gas emissions. Aridity differs from drought—a temporary anomaly—by representing a permanent climatic transformation, reducing any chance of ecosystems returning to their previous states.

Recommendations for Mitigation and Adaptation
The UNCCD outlines critical strategies to combat rising aridity:

Strengthen Monitoring Systems

Integrate aridity metrics into drought monitoring systems.
Use tools like the Aridity Visual Information Tool for early warnings and targeted interventions.
Sustainable Land Use Practices

Promote innovative, holistic approaches to land management, such as the Great Green Wall initiative in Africa.
Incentivize land-use systems that restore ecosystems, build resilience, and engage local communities.
Water Efficiency Innovations

Implement technologies like rainwater harvesting, drip irrigation, and wastewater recycling to conserve water in drylands.
Resilience in Vulnerable Communities

Empower local populations with financial support, capacity-building programs, and climate information services.
Encourage farmers to adopt drought-resistant crops and arid-tolerant livestock.
Global Cooperation

Align national policies with international frameworks like the Land Degradation Neutrality targets.
Foster cross-sector collaboration to scale solutions, as seen through the UNCCD.
Voices of the Experts
The report features strong calls to action from scientists:

“Aridity is a permanent transformation, redefining life on Earth,” said Ibrahim Thiaw, Executive Secretary of the UNCCD.
“Burning fossil fuels is causing permanent drying with catastrophic impacts on water access,” said Barron Orr, Chief Scientist of the UNCCD.
Nichole Barger, UNCCD SPI Chair: “We have the tools to act, but the question is whether we have the will.”
Sergio Vicente-Serrano highlights the importance of integrating Indigenous and local knowledge with scientific advancements.
By the Numbers: Global Trends
77.6% of Earth’s land has become drier (1990–2020).
40.6% of global land mass is classified as drylands.
2.3 billion people currently live in drylands, projected to rise to 5 billion by 2100.
4.3 million km² of humid lands turned to drylands in 30 years.
12% GDP decline in Africa attributed to aridity (1990–2015).
Under high emissions, Kenya is expected to lose 50% of its corn output by 2050.
Conclusion: A Turning Point
The UNCCD report marks a pivotal moment in addressing aridity as a global crisis. While the consequences of inaction are dire—worsening food insecurity, water shortages, forced migration, and ecosystem collapse—solutions are within reach. Mitigating emissions, implementing sustainable land and water practices, and fostering international collaboration are critical to curbing aridity’s advance and securing a livable planet for future generations.